chief washington correspondent john harwin knows. >> everything we know suggests it's going to be chose. let me give you context for prediction of a romney victory. take the latest nbc/"wall street journal" poll. obama 48%, romney photography%, can't get any closer than that, well wind the margin of error. then go to the battleground states. we've got three late battle ground state polls. first of all in the state of virginia which as you mentioned, polls close early, 13 electoral votes, 48/47, president obama on top. state of florida, two-point lead for president obama. the state of ohio, most people have seen as the hinge point of this election, president obama's up 51/45. let's look at where the battleground states stand. if you average polls taken on the real clear politics website, of the nine battle ground states romney is only leading in the average of those polls in the two of them, north carolina and florida. the other states, president obama's got a lead. i'm talking about iowa, colorado, new hampshire, ohio, nevada, all states where president obama's doing very well. at least